Of XR’s “The Big One” – likely numbers and likely consequences

In April the next (and final?) XR event will take place, in London. In January the organisation click-baited a “We Quit” statement (see here for more.)

They are claiming they will get 100 thousand people to turn up and… (mill around? sell newspapers to each other? something else?)

So, two things.

First the numbers.

There’s always that game about how many people actually turned up to an protest event. If you double the police estimate and halve the organisers’ estimate, you usually get a fairly narrow band. So, if the Met say 5k, the organisers say 20k, then we can safely say its 10k…

Personally, I think they will be very lucky indeed to get 10,000. I’ll be amazed if they get 20,000. I may place a bet about this, actually.

Second, the consequences.

If they get 10,000 people at a rally, all the “brand” is doing is reminding people (attendees, potentially sympathetic onlookers, opponents) of back when XR had hoped and believed that they had power. That’s not a memory people will want to re-engage with. That’s not an organization they trust anymore. It’s a busted flush.

Will the zombie will stagger on? Don’t know, don’t particularly care.

THIS, from Milan Rai, the editor of Peace News, is really good on the broader context, the broader consequences.