Long Wave theory

Wikipedia: In economics, Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles, great surges,long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are supposed cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy.[1] It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years, thecycles consist of alternating intervals between high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth.[2]

Nice summation of some of the criticism too, here.


Kondratiev or Long Wave theory views modern capitalist society as the product of a series of ‘waves’ of all-embracing technological and social change. Freeman and Louca (2001) survey this literature and develop a historical theory of these waves, while Kohler (2003, 2005) develops a dynamic model of the economics of a Kondatriev wave. In this literature, the automobile industry and the associated technologies and industries, especially the oil industry, are identified as one of these Kondatriev waves.

Page 233 Kohler, Whitmarsh, Michie and Oughton in  Foxon, T, Kohler, J. and Oughton, C. (2008) Innovation For A Low Carbon Economy Economic, Institutional and Management Approaches Cheltenham: Edward Elgar

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