The ominous parallels – AI and Carbon Capture and Storage

Should probably turn this into some think piece for some paywalled academic journal that nobody reads. Citations are the currency blah bah.

In the meantime – it occurred to me today as I shlepped into town (a useful 15 minute walk) that there are some interesting (ymmv) parallels between “Artificial Intelligence” and “carbon capture and storage”.

Origins

• “AI” is an ancient dream, promised repeatedly and talked up extensively, only to come crashing down time and again.
• CCS is a more recent dream (Marchetti 1977 onwards) promised repeatedly and talked up extensively, only to come crashing down time and again.

Function it serves

• AI allows us to “think” (well, vibe, but it amounts to the same thing) that the messiness, the uncertainties and “externalities” of being humans on a fragile confusing planet can be overcome thanks to the ingenuity of some techies backed by huge amounts of congealed money (state/corporate/both). Some people will get super rich, somehow.
• CCS allows us to “think” (well, vibe, but it amounts to the same thing) t, the uncertainties and “externalities” of being humans on a fragile confusing planet can be overcome thanks to the ingenuity of some techies backed by huge amounts of congealed money (state/corporate/both). Some people will get super rich, somehow.

The reality

• For AI, the hype cycle kicks in, the journalists write breathless puff-pieces before reality bites. The energy demands, let alone the lack of an actual business model involving paying customers means the “whole thing” is likely to fall over, leaving only a shattered visage and two vast and trunkless legs of stone
• For CCS, the hype cycle kicks in, the….

The combo

Well, I am not convinced this wasn’t written by a bot.

“Historically, CCS projects have faced three major barriers: high energy consumption during capture, high capital and operational costs, and the complexity of safely storing CO₂ for centuries. This is where Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a game-changer. By providing real-time optimization, predictive maintenance, and advanced geological modeling, AI is enabling CCS facilities to operate more efficiently, predict storage behavior with higher accuracy, and reduce both operational and energy costs. In the same way that process control systems transformed industrial productivity in the late 20th century, AI is poised to accelerate CCS deployment in the 21st.”

The differences

CCS is never going to get off/under the ground (see what I did there?) in any significant-to-emissions-reductions way. That’s not the point; it’s there to keep the show on the road for a few more minutes/months/years. The projects that happen will mess with local water tables and economies, but the direct damage by failed CCS projects is going to be minimal.

“AI” (distinct from LLMs – that’s another blog) is going to leave a grotesque legacy. As Cory Doctorow recently wrote;

“AI is the asbestos we are shoveling into the walls of our society and our descendants will be digging it out for generations”

Quite the image. The man should try his hand at writing novels.

What is to be done?

Nothing. The damage is being done. Cocker Protocol, innit?